Water pentration into the basement ceiling from door above.

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Maryland Inspector found open neutral

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Erosion causing concrete cracking on front stoop.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sump pump discharge line not sloped for full drainage

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Sample market analysis worksheet.

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

sample market

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COMMENTS & EXPLANATIONS

Subject’s Sub-Market
Seller-(developer, builder, etc.)paid financial assistance prevalent?
Explain in detail the seller concessions trends for the past 12 months (e.g., seller contributions
increased from 3% to 5%, increasing use of buydowns, closing costs, condo fees, options,
etc.).
Seller concessions are significant in the market place and typically reflect a higher price structure with concession inclusion than sales without concessions. According to FNMA’s market value definition and guidelines for seller concessions the appraiser determined that seller concessions in the subject’s market area typically do not reflect market value and were adjusted for in the sales comparison approach in this appraisal report.

Are foreclosure sales (REO sales) a factor in the market? If yes, explain
(including the trends in listings and sales of foreclosed properties).
Foreclosure ratio is declining per complied market activity. The decline may be due to an
increase in short sales.
.
SCOPE OF WORK (MARKET CONDITIONS ANALYSIS)
Data Source (Subject’s-sub Market): Mris.com (local MLS system)

Analysis of Subject’s Sub-market
The appraiser compiled market activity for prior 2 yrs from the subject’s neighborhood to
illustrate market trends and develop the comparable pool for selection of data points used to
reflect the subject’s market value.

The over all trends are a stable inventory ratio, declining foreclosure ratio, and a slightly
increasing median sold price. The most recent sales were renovated units which reflect a
higher price than typical and illustrate an artificial upward trend in the price trends graph in
attached MC worksheet.

Definitions:
Neighborhood- A group of complementary land uses; a congruous grouping of inhabitants, buildings, or business enterprises. (The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal 4th Edition, Appraisal Institute)
Real Estate Market- The interaction of individuals who exchange real property rights for other assets such as money; a group of individuals or firms that are in contact with one another for the purpose of
conducting real estate transactions. (The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal 4th Edition, Appraisal
Institute) Market Segmentation- The process by which submarkets within a larger market are identified and analyzed. (The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal 4th Edition, Appraisal Institute)
Subject’s Sub-market- The total pool of comparable properties from which a potential set of purchaser might (in the case of closed sale) have considered purchasing , or (in the case of an on-the-market property) might consider purchasing. Implicit in this definition is that this particular set of purchasers has both the desire and ability to purchase the properties. If a specific set of purchasers would consider the “Subject Property”, but not Property B, then Property B, would not be in the Subject’s Sub-market . The Subject’s Sub-market may be all or only a segment of its neighborhood.

NOTE: The 1004MC-71 form and the URAR form tend to use “Neighborhood” and “Subject’s Submarket” interchangeably though they are defined differently. This form is required by the client and cannot be modified by the appraiser. Intended users should obtain additional information from the creators of these forms (FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC) if this issue interferes with a clear understanding of the analysis, conclusions, or opinions presented. Use of these terms by the appraiser anywhere except the 1004MC or URAR forms conform to the above definitions.

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Fannie Mae’s market value definition and what it means to an appraiser

Fannie Mae’s market value definition and what it means to an appraiser
Jan. 2010 by Carlton Mitchell Certified Residential Appraiser in Maryland and Virginia.

The market value definition is pre-written in FNMA’s appraisal forms.
Here is the market value definition:
DEFINITION OF MARKET VALUE: The most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller, each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby: (1) buyer and seller are typically motivated; (2) both parties are well informed or well advised, and each acting in what he or she considers his or her own best interest; (3) a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market; (4) payment is made in terms of cash in U. S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and (5) the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions* granted by anyone associated with the sale.
*Adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions. No adjustments are necessary for those costs which are normally paid by sellers as a result of tradition or law in a market area; these costs are readily identifiable since the seller pays these costs in virtually all sales transactions. Special or creative financing adjustments can be made to the comparable property by comparisons to financing terms offered by a third party institutional lender that is not already involved in the property or transaction. Any adjustment should not be calculated on a mechanical dollar for dollar cost of the financing or concession but the dollar amount of any adjustment should approximate the market’s reaction to the financing or concessions based on the appraiser’s judgment.

Most probable price: Please take careful note this does not say highest possible. Therefore, from a risk assessment purpose this definition reflects a built in buffer signifying that there has to be market desire for the product at the appraiser’s opinion of value that is main street credible. I begin my market analysis with a market segment definition based on the location and physical features of the property I’m appraising for compliance with reflecting high probability.

Sometimes this market segment is limited to the neighborhood while other times due to limited neighborhood sales I compile sales from a larger geographical area to increase the data points to a high enough number to reflect probable market response.

There are two main factors that help keep the market segment definition creditable when increasing the geographical area. First, the appraiser should verify that the other neighborhoods where data is coming from has a historical price per sqft range similar to the subject neighborhood. If not than identify the cause of the variance and adjust for it in the appraisal. For example, neighborhoods A and B are predominantly rambler homes built post WWII. Neighborhood A’s ramblers are generally slightly larger than neighborhood B but through historical analysis and matching sales over time from each neighborhood sorted by condition illustrate that the price per sqft range from each neighborhood is small enough to not warrant a linear negative size adjustment for sales from neighborhood A.

I have seen this many times when reviewing appraisals where linear adjustments are simply assumed. I have sent appraisals to lenders with out a linear size adjustment with market support for my determination only to have lender reviewer’s call and request a linear adjustment because “every report has a linear size adjustment over 100sqft”. I have to laugh because many appraisers’ use software that has a built in mechanism for automatically adjusting for size. The software often has a default variance setting of 100 sqft. For example, any variance over 100 sqft adjust. The appraiser inputs the multiplier and the software auto adjusts. If so many appraisers are adjusting for size base on a software default settings how is that a reflection of the market? Does every market segment respond to size in the same manner?

The second factor to keep the data compilation creditable requires the appraiser to set search parameters based on physical features to isolate sales from the data set that are not comparable to the subject. Meaning remove data points that simply would not be considered by the market place as in the same bracket. For example, if I’m appraising a 50 year old home newer homes typically would not be in my data set. Be mind full of location and physical variance that may skew the data set compilation from reflecting market response specific to the home you are appraising.

“buyer and seller, each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus.” This part of the definition caused issues in lender appraisal policy when foreclosures started to become wide spread in the market place. Some appraisers were saying that foreclosures or short sales should not be included in the appraisal if the subject property was not in a similar distressed status. On the surface that seemed reasonable but never set well with me. I simply do not like blanket policies as being the best fit for every situation. I choose to let the market tell me how to define the data set. The affect of distressed sales/listing can be determined by simple categorization. Create two columns with distressed sales in one and non-distressed sales in another. Break down into condition categories and compare the sale prices and days on the market to identify the market response. Than incorporate the outcome into the appraisal development process.

“price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions*”

Notice FNMA has a star beside this statement. I hear it all the time from realtors. FNMA allows up to 6% seller concessions as if it’s a free party to inflate prices or hold prices up when demand is falling. This is the beginning of FNMA’s directive to appraisers that we are responsible to determine misuse of seller concessions. Meaning that appraisers must determine if the concessions reflect market value or not. This is most noticed when qualified buyers purchase a similar unit without concession at a lower price. This is typically identifiable in multiple transactions and really illustrates where the market is moving. Also, take a neighborhood or a market area and run all sales for a 30 year period. Most likely you will find a big increase in seller concession during economical downturns. I’ll get into the significance of this historical data below.

“*Adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions.” Once again FNMA has a star to signify importance. Simply compile the data set and identify transactions with and without concessions and let the market determine where market acceptance is and net the concessions accordingly.

Now we get back to the historical data analysis. “normally paid by sellers as a result of tradition or law in a market area; these costs are readily identifiable since the seller pays these costs in virtually all sales”

Compile the sales data for 30 years for the defined market area. Can you say virtually all sales had seller concessions? It is law? In my market area Montgomery County Md and Fairfax County Va I can say seller concessions are not law. I’ll even say sellers really do not want to give money back at closing. I will also say virtually all sales do not have seller concession. Therefore, for FNMA compliance I must determine most probable market value and may need to net seller concessions to meet compliance.

“Any adjustment should not be calculated on a mechanical dollar for dollar cost of the financing or concession but the dollar amount of any adjustment should approximate the market’s

reaction to the financing or concessions based on the appraiser’s judgment.”

What FNMA is stating here is as mentioned above, determine probable market value and base the removal of seller concessions in the opinion of value rooted in market response. Yes, it may be a 100% concession deduction (dollar for dollar) across the data set.

Carlton Mitchell

Maryland Certified Appraiser

Virginia Certified Appraiser

Maryland Home Inspector

Carlton provides residential appraisal services in Maryland and Virginia for a 30 mile radius of Washington Dc. Carlton specializes in Montgomery County MD. Carlton is a certified residential appraiser based in Silver Spring, Md. Carlton accepts fee assignments and is available for appraisal review work

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Few things to consider when analyzing residential real estate market price trends.

 1) General search parameters statistically compiled are not as reliable as a specific market segments defined and compiled.  For example, a few market segments may increase the average and median sold price while others are declining.  In a larger market view the declining market segments may be “hidden” in the data set and the results could be misrepresented.   

2)  Grouping all units with various condition categories also skews the average and median sold price.  Movement of the median sold price is typically used to illustrate price trends for a defined time period.  The most reliable method to reflect price trends is to geographically define the market segment with physical features used as search parameters than categorize into 3 main condition categories. Compile the 3 data sets and measure median sold price for each condition category (subjective analysis but is rooted in pictures and commentary provided by realtors).

3)  With the increased absorption rate through out the Washington D.C. metro area median sold prices are indicating stable to increasing trends from multiple year low points. However, in many case studies inventory is declining but still not in balance with demand and concessions are a large part of most transactions. 

Demand is fueled by a reduced price structure and economical stimulus.  When prices hold without concessions or market participants not participating in the concession market are purchasing at a similar price structure than you have something to hang your hat on as indicating either a stable or increasing market. 

 Many neighborhoods across the Washington D.C. metro area do not have a balanced inventory and absorption rate (units that come on the market and are withdrawn/expired without selling are included in the compiled data) and thus the indication of stable or increasing markets may be a temporary status in some market segment.  With a possible increase in foreclosures in 2010 and 2011 a retreat in the price structure may be a probable outcome.

Carlton Mitchell  www.Appraisersoncall.com

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